Sunday, April 19, 2020
The Herd Immunity
Actually, we should call it 'population immunity' as we're not livestock, but the term 'herd' keeps popping up in articles or interviews on covid-19, whether in hebrew or in english.
The theory behind 'herd immunity' is that the virus won't disappear by itself, and we don't know when there will be a vaccine against it . So, currently, there are two options to prevent spreading of the infection:
1. isolation, social distancing, quarantine
2. herd immunity.
The first option usually has good results in a community/region/country where people are disciplined and willing to make temporary or long-term sacrifices on the economic and social levels.
The second option , that of 'herd immunity' occurs , according to specialists on the matter, when at least 60% of the population (the herd), gets exposed to the virus, contracts the disease, develops anti-bodies, recovers , becomes immune to it, and in this way slows down and eventually stops spreading of the virus.
The above mentioned exposure is not done as an attempt to get intentionally infected in order to build immunity.
It is done through trying to return, even partially, to the routine of work, shopping, sports, and other life activities which, sadly, carry the risk of infection.
I must confess, it all seems to me rather complicated and risky.
I don't envy those that have to take and implement decisions regarding easement on coronavirus restrictions,
It's a terrible responsability.
Anyway ,in my country, we need a miracle, and fast, before things get chaotic.
Labels:
anti-bodies,
chaotic,
herd immunity,
infection,
miracle.,
vaccine
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Hi Duta,
ReplyDeleteBelieving with you for a miracle!!
God bless you and God bless Israel
and all the nations!!
Much love !!
♡
Shayndel
Thanks, Shayndel for your kind words and blessings.
DeleteYes, miracles happen, and I believe in their power.
Well, if you believe in miracles, that's all you need then. Donald Trump will be right along with you.
ReplyDeleteI do believe in miracles; they happen, at least at the personal level. I've experienced at least two major miracles in my lifetime so far.
DeleteThe second one is too risky for me, I can't imagine risking my sons's health like that, so we prefer to stay at home abd that what's our government told us todo. I can't wait for this to be over... I could never imagine something like this happen to this world. Stay safe everyone!
ReplyDeleteI'm with you on this, Natalia. The herd immunity is a bit scary.
DeleteWe all want for this to be over, but I'm afraid there's still a long way to go.
I've been hearing a lot of that too. But so many people die after getting the virus that everyone getting it and having antibodies afterwards seems risky at best.
ReplyDeleteWell, in my country it has been decided on easement of restrictions, partial and gradual return to some routine. We shall have to see how that works, and how that influences the extent of infection and immunity.
DeleteUntil we get the research and data in, we won't really know.
ReplyDeleteI've read about countries getting reinfected. You are right, we have to let the healthcare peeps to do their jobs.
Take care...
One of the puzzling aspects of the corona disease is the one regarding people that have recovered from it. Have they ecome immune to the virus? Could they be reinfected? Are they likely to infect others again?
DeleteNothing seems to be clear yet.
I think of the 1918 Spanish Flu and somehow humanity survived. There was a terrible toll though not unlike a war.
ReplyDeleteIn the Army, they say: 'never fight a new war with the strategy of the last one, if you wish to win'.
DeleteThat goes for the coronavirus pandemic too. In order to win the battle against the virus we have to find some innovating strategy, not the one used in 1918.
I think people are getting antsy here; I keep saying it but it is showing up with protests, etc. That worries me more than the virus does. I keep saying that too. We are out and about doing essential shopping and I wonder if we have been exposed to it but then we have okay health so we haven't gotten it yet? We took a drive today, stayed in the car the whole time. Drove by popular walking spots. People were not social distancing or isolating themselves out there. Its such a mess with what is opened, what is closed, what is essential, what isn't. I am trying to trust in God through this all but I do wonder how much more people can take of being denied what they consider their rights to be.
ReplyDeletebetty
We people are confused and helpless. We fear not only the virus, but also the growing potential for violence.
DeleteI'm very much afraid we haven't seen anything yet.
Here, they've started to ease up on restrictions, so let's see what happens in two weeks time.
We have followed strict social distancing and then isolation rules and it seems to be keeping our numbers down... so far, our medical authorities warn to never become complacent as there's so much unknown about this virus.
ReplyDeleteI wish your country all the best as rules are eased there Duta.
... and, yes, I too believe in miracles... or a helping hand from unknown sources, call it what you will but things can change for the better for no apparent reason. It takes an open and grateful heart to recognise these as we each make our journey through life.
Warmest good wishes to you Duta xx
No doubt, following the rules keeps the numbers down.
DeleteHere there's pressure on the government to gradually get the people back to routine, and without a vaccine in sight, the fear is great.
Thanks Sue for your very kind words.
The pressure is on in this country too, with people ignoring the mandates of their governors to shelter in place. Fortunately it's up to the states. Well, for some states this will not be a good thing, but I live in California, where we have a highly intelligent and capable governor, who has extended the shelter in place mandate indefinitely. And he's young too. So tired of all these old politicians.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good thing, Inger, you feel you can trust your governor and his policy.
DeleteThis is of extreme importance in troubled times like these.
This is very interesting and really informative. I'm hearing the words "Herd Immunity" a lot and did not know exactly what it meant. Also, have not taken the time to research and find out for myself. Thank you for the explanation, I learned something new.
ReplyDelete'herd' - that's kind of insulting for people, but that's the term used.
DeleteGlad my explanation helped making it understood. Thanks for the kind comment.
Living in a small populated area, things move slow. We have one hospital for population of 12,000...We are 20 bed for acute care, and 28 bed for extend care. So even if one percent of minor attack of covid 19...It would be all hands on deck
ReplyDeleteThe world is never ready for any kind of disaster.The corona pandemic has found us with the 'pants down', so to speak. Shortage in even the simple, basic items such as masks and suits for the medical personnel. We've got many infected doctors and nurses.
DeleteIt is a huge responsibility, for our various governments, worldwide, in their endeavours to get the populace to listen and heed the advice given. We are all in this together...
ReplyDeleteEach and everyone of us...has to do the best we can to help combat the virus....sooner than later, diminishing the risks..We have to consider our fellow beings.
Take good care,DUTA...I wish you and your family well. :)
"..sooner than later.." - exactly.
DeleteAvoiding crowds and self-distancing is the least we can do to help win the battle against the virus.
Stay safe, be well, Lee!
Praying.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I believe in the power of praying, too.
DeleteI had never heard the expression "herd" lol ! Not in English either. I think nobody knows how the virus reacts, they don't even know if you are immune after having had the virus. The whole medical world is working on a vaccin and nothing in view yet !
ReplyDeleteStrange,using the term 'herd' for people, isn't it?
DeleteThe bottom line is - no one knows for sure what awaits us. We are quite in the dark about crucial things regarding the virus.
From where I sit, staying in and quarantining or if going out, being extremely careful, with masks, gloves, etc., is a much better option than taking the risk of becoming ill, especially with something so dangerous. A miracle would help here. At this point I'm buying what my mom used to say when I was a kid -- God helps those who help themselves. And I'm doing that by staying in or masking.
ReplyDeleteI'm also for the first option, fearful of the second one.
DeleteAs for God's help - I pray that He guides me, so that I do the right thing. But do (help myself) I must.
It is indeed strange to hear the word, herd used to describe humans. But when you think of it some feel that humans descended from animals, so perhaps it does apply? And I am not saying that I agree at all with this term because I do not. That said, I do agree that we need to keep on social distancing as much as possible, but then at what point will things be considered "safe." I have been hearing so much about people who may be asymptomatic and if that's the case even among those of us who feel no effects, how will we ever know if we can get back to a new normal? It's all very confusing and unsettling right now.
ReplyDeleteIn psychology, we might come about concepts like 'herd behavior', 'herd instinct', but somehow it doesn't sound right with the word immunity.
DeleteSo far, we don't know anything certain about the green light that will allow us to go back to normal. It is all, as you put it, "unsettling".
When you explained Herd Immunity, you clarified it all for me; I remembered hearing about it in passing. Praying for Israel every day.
ReplyDeleteGlad I helped clarifying it for you.
DeleteThanks for the praying, Mary.
Wishing you and family the very Best!
Dear DUTA,
ReplyDeleteHope you have been well. I was thinking of you when I was reading Yuval Noah Harari sonce he is from Israel.
Our country has been on a lockdown since 22 April and it is going to be a month but in spite of everything, the virus is spreading. Hoping and believing that this too shall pass. And yes, come to see, many of the English language's metaphors and similes are from the animal/insect/reptile kingdom.
Sample these:
The classroom was a zoo.
The alligator's teeth are white daggers.
She is a peacock.
My teacher is a dragon.
Mary's eyes were fireflies.
The computers at school are old dinosaurs.
He is a night owl.
Maria is a chicken.
Take care and be safe.
Hi Deborah,
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear from you.
Oh, yes, the history professor Harari has become quite a celebrity.
I'm impressed by your knowledge and have greatly enjoyed your samples of metaphors and similes from the animal kingdom. Thank you.
Stay safe!
Good morning, Duta. I am going to the grocery store today. I haven't been out much, so this is a big day. It is all so weird, isn't it? I believe in miracles too. I am praying for one now! Just one? No, a million. 😇
ReplyDeleteP.S. In a comment above you said two miracles had happened in your life. I would love to hear about them! Now is the time to encourage each other.
See that you don't leave house without the mask and gloves on, Sandi!
DeleteAs for the miracles:
first one - I contracted a rare disease and I was almost gone. God took pity on me and my family and let me live. My survival was considered a miracle by the doctors.
Second miracle - years later, on a Saturday morning, alone in the house. I woke up late and was about to leave bed and get dressed, but I found out I couldn't move the low part of the body. No pain, rather a sort of sudden paralysis. I went down on my palms and crawled till I reached a small cabinet were I kept some basic asian massage devices. I started massaging the low back area like crazy. I don't know for how long, a matter of hours, methinks - till I got on my feet. The next day I went to work. People found it hard to believe my story (I couldn't believe it myself). They all said that was a miracle. It was indeed.
I hope your curiosity, Sandi, is satisfied.
That is amazing. I think they were miracles too. Did you ever find out what caused the paralysis?
DeleteI have been wearing a mask and gloves when I go to the store. Yesterday made three times I have been out since mid-March. Well, we go for walks but that is in the countryside where we don't have people around.
No, I usually dread doctors and hospitals, so I was happy to be on my feet again, as if nothing had happened.
DeleteIt's so hard to know how to move forward with this new threat to the world. My husband and I are staying in, and only going out for groceries. Well, he is, I'm staying home with a surgically repaired broken ankle. Makes me nervous each time he goes out. I am upset about people gathering, and protesting the shut-downs each US state imposes. Who know what the answer is...we're all too new to this. My son-in-law is a doctor, and he and his family are staying in, except when he has to go to the hospital and work. That makes me uneasy, but we need our doctors.
ReplyDeleteIt's really amazing, how little we know for sure about this virus. That makes us feel helpless and scary of the next step.
DeleteYou're doing the right thing staying in with husband, and taking care of your broken ankle. We are indeed "...all too new to this."
Be well, and stay safe Bica!
So many confuse things are going on here :(
ReplyDeleteTake care Duta!
True. Confusion is everywhere, and it'll probably stay with us, until there's some major breakthrough like a vaccine or so.
DeleteIt is very hard for everyone. It is also difficult to keep young children occupied inside all the time, parents are going nuts. Here in Tennessee, like in Georgia, the governors want to re-open everything quickly (like next week.) They care more about the economy than human lives. It is so sad.
ReplyDeleteIndeed - children are a great worry both for parents and authorities. There's no easy way to find solutions.
DeleteThe reopening of things poses a great risk - but, who knows, perhaps it'll be also eye and mind opening.
These are strange, worrying and confusing times.
ReplyDeleteI do my best to take something positive from each day, but it's not always easy!
Keep safe and well.
All the best Jan
Indeed, we're facing difficult times. Nobody can enlighten us on what's going to happen next.
DeleteScientists and experts have not got any clear message for us.
This hope is universal. May God accept our prayers, and save us!
ReplyDelete